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China has deployed its coast guard into the waters of the Diaoyu islands and military drones past remote Japanese territory as Beijing escalates strains over the Japanese prime minister’s remarks regarding the island of Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

This past Sunday, the China's maritime patrol announced that its vessels conducted a “lawful patrol operation” through the waters of the Diaoyu islands, which are administered by Japan but also asserted as territory by China.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation conducted patrols within the maritime jurisdiction of the Senkaku islands. This was a legitimate rights enforcement activity undertaken by the Chinese maritime authorities to protect its sovereign claims,” the statement said.

Diplomatic Spat

China and Japan have repeatedly faced off around the disputed territory but the latest activity come amid an escalating political dispute after the Japanese prime minister, the Japanese official, told parliament that if Beijing assaults the self-governing island of Taiwan it might provoke a military response from Tokyo.

That sparked an angry response from Beijing, which has indicated it demands a withdrawal from Takaichi.

Taiwan's Position

China claims Taiwan as its own territory and intends to annex it under what it describes as “unification”. It has not ruled out the use of force. The island's administration and people overwhelmingly reject the prospect of Chinese rule – choosing to preserve the status quo without formally announcing independence, but pledging to protect their sovereignty if necessary.

An military assault by China would threaten to spiral into a international confrontation, possibly drawing in the US and other allies including Tokyo, which has territory just 110km (68 miles) from Taiwan.

Military Activity

In Taiwan, the defence ministry said on Sunday morning that it had observed three dozen PLA planes, seven navy ships and one government vessel, which was probably the maritime patrol, operating around the territory over the previous day.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to three drones operating near Taiwan and the Japanese islands off its northeastern shoreline, appearing to go particularly close to the nearby Japanese island. PLA movements there are occasional, but infrequent, and Beijing's defense operations in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone generally has been minimal in recent weeks.

Late on Saturday, the ministry said China had been conducting another “joint combat patrol” to “harass the airspace and sea around us”. It noted the island had dispatched military assets to monitor the situation. Taiwan documents these operations a few times monthly as part of what the Taiwanese government says is an continuous strategic pressure.

Diplomatic Pressure

Tokyo has been experiencing increased strain from China since Takaichi made her comments, with Beijing's diplomatic representative in Osaka prompting a formal protest from Tokyo by commenting that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

Beijing then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first time in more than two years, and China’s defence ministry stated that any Japanese intervention would be doomed to fail.

Warning for Citizens

Late last week, Beijing cautioned its citizens against travelling to Japan, leading Japan to request China to take “suitable actions”, though it provided no details.

Three Chinese airlines announced this weekend that tickets to Japan could be cancelled without penalty.

Adding to the tensions, Beijing's administration on Sunday urged its citizens to “carefully reconsider” studying in Japan, citing what it described as an unstable security environment.

While the advice does not amount to a ban, a significant decrease in the number of Chinese students could have a negative impact on Japanese universities. A record 336,708 foreign nationals were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to official data. They included more than 123,000 Chinese students – by far the single biggest group.

Media Response

Late on Saturday, a official press commentary charged the Japanese official with performing a political stunt that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.

“A clash between Tokyo and Beijing would not be a limited skirmish; it would probably involve other powers, including the United States, and could quickly spiral into a major confrontation with severe repercussions.”

Policy Standpoints

The government of Taiwan says only its people can decide its future. Officials in Tokyo have traditionally refrained from publicly mentioning Taiwan when addressing potential conflicts, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also preferred by Japan's primary defense partner, the US.

However, China’s ruling Communist party says the incorporation of the island with the People’s Republic of China is “unavoidable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, Beijing has also been increasing its political operations and its statements towards the island.